Daily Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average count of daily murders each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, security analysts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it may mask days when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.