A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
